Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x077d…f014 other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%72W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1
tech 32% $0
crypto 26% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 44 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 73 -1.0% -10.4% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses72 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage218d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31? Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeti May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Baidu have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of March? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of March? Apr 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $315 end of March? Apr 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 23 $1 $0 +1%
Bank of England increases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of February? Mar 02 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 26d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 30d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 32d
Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $4 37d
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 42d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 43d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 47d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $3 48d
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $3 51d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 51d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 99¢ $2 52d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 59d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 60d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 61d
Will BNB reach $900 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 63d
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 65d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 68d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 69d
Will Baidu have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 69d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $4 70d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $2 70d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.39 · official $41.39 (match) · 152 history records