Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x077e…1fb0 sports 1481 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$749 (-2%) realized −$748 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%844W / 616L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$228
14 days−$123
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$837
other 2% +$110
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$23
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 36% -24.4%
≤30d 486 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 52% -7.6%
≤90d 1390 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 52% -21.3%
all 1460 -1.9% -11.2% 58% 52% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 52% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 45% -19.4%
15% -27.5% 39% -27.2%
20% -34.6% 31% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$748
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses844 / 616
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1460 / 1481
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 90¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+90%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ 94¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+76%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 63¢ 98¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 64¢ 99¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 57¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 8¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-85%)
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? No 96¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +127%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Will T1 win MSI 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$11 +173%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 +$19 +25%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$17 +58%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 +$4 +72%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $5 +$3 +69%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +23%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 16 $51 +$4 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $59 25m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $23 28m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $5 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 11h
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 11h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 11h
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 12h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 12h
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 12h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 12h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $5 12h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ $5 12h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $5 12h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $5 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $10 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $5 12h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $5 12h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $5 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $5 12h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 55¢ $5 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $5 12h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $5 12h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $5 12h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $5 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $11 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.20 · official $161.20 (match) · 3500 history records