Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0780…67fb crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+2%) realized −$19 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days−$198
14 days−$29
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$229
other 14% −$21
tech 11% +$111
world 7% −$120
economics 1% +$24
politics 1% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -1.5% -10.9% 26% 25% -19.1%
≤30d 97 +14.1% +3.2% 29% 27% -14.8%
≤90d 99 +13.0% +2.3% 29% 26% -15.8%
all 99 +13.0% +2.3% 29% 26% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 26% -15.8%
10% -7.5% 25% -23.9%
15% -16.5% 23% -31.2%
20% -24.7% 23% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$19 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 70
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage36d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $29 $76 +$47 (+163%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 40¢ 64¢ $40 $64 +$24 (+59%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 21¢ 34¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $64 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$16 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$101 +794%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$47 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$17 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$47 +495%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$22 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$18 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$12 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$11 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$72 +489%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$93 +627%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$32 +305%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$4 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $60 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.57 · official $152.58 (match) · 644 history records