Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0781…45c2 crypto 37 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-21%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$59
other 14% −$6
sports 11% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 39% -31.8%
≤30d 36 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 39% -31.8%
≤90d 36 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 39% -31.8%
all 36 -20.7% -28.3% 50% 39% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 39% -31.8%
10% -35.1% 36% -38.3%
15% -41.4% 31% -44.3%
20% -47.1% 19% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$19 -46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $16 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $0 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $9 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $8 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.91 · official $9.91 (match) · 85 history records