Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0783…8027 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (564 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,767 (+5%) realized +$3,767 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$6,454per market
Trades / day564.0pace
Fees−$1,787est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6,949
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 27% +2.4%
≤30d 11 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 27% +2.4%
≤90d 11 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 27% +2.4%
all 11 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 27% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover564.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 27% +2.4%
10% -20.6% 27% -7.4%
15% ← realistic here -28.3% 9% -16.3%
20% -35.3% 9% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
19.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,799 vs −$769 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,767
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1,787
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6,454
Trades / day564.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $9,515 +$512 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $17,271 −$473 -3%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12,231 +$3,786 +31%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $586 +$20 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $255 −$253 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $4,524 −$2,974 -66%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,485 +$2,966 +200%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $13,209 +$526 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2,171 −$94 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9,700 +$2,983 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $805 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $188 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $13 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,768 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $15 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $2,930 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $684 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $44 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 91¢ $499 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 91¢ $170 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 91¢ $5 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 91¢ $10 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 91¢ $10 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $155 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $16 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $16 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $100 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $100 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $31 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $59 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 89¢ $500 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $23 25m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $180 25m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $100 25m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $16 25m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $88 25m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $7 25m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $90 25m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $2 25m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 90¢ $5 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 565 history records