Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
07 0x0784…f97b politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$1
other 25% $0
economics 10% $0
sports 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage112d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $116 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $116 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $117 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $118 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 02 $118 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $118 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $118 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $118 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $119 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $116 13h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $116 23d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $117 24d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 31d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 31d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $117 33d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $117 33d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $117 35d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $117 35d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 38d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 39d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $117 41d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $117 41d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 45d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 45d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $118 64d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $29 64d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $89 64d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $118 68d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $118 69d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $118 70d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 70d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $92 70d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $2 70d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $3 70d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $13 70d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $118 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records