Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x0786…b1e4 sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$119 (+0%) realized +$114 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%129W / 2L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$819per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$9,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$50
14 days+$67
30 days+$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$51
weather 23% +$29
other 21% +$24
tech 7% +$9
crypto 3% +$3
finance 2% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 131 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 131 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 131 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×29.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3785.4 per $1 lost it wins $3785.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$9,166
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses129 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)131 / 144
History coverage19d
Avg bet$819
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $974 $975 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $901 $901 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $891 $892 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $800 $801 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $474 $475 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Sheng Tang vs. Siwanat Auytayakul: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $238 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $815 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $758 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $712 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $108 $0 +0%
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Tomljanovic Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $267 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $999 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $999 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $999 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $999 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $999 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $999 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $999 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $46 38m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $800 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $289 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $880 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $354 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $54 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $142 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $101 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Sheng Tang vs. Siwanat Auytayakul: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $47 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,165.82 · official $9,165.83 (match) · 574 history records