Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
07 0x0786…df1d weather 846 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,025 (+5%) realized +$2,595 · open −$570
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%532W / 309L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,056now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$435
14 days+$1,394
30 days+$1,958
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$320
weather 42% +$1,179
other 2% −$254
finance 1% +$38
crypto 1% −$45
world 0% +$4
politics 0% +$3
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 45% -7.7%
≤30d 519 +1.9% -7.8% 68% 51% -4.6%
≤90d 841 -6.2% -15.1% 63% 46% -5.4%
all 841 -6.2% -15.1% 63% 46% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 46% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 30% -14.4%
15% -30.7% 20% -22.7%
20% -37.5% 13% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$1,056
Realized+$2,595
Unrealized−$570
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses532 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions5
Markets (closed)841 / 846
History coverage51d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ 98¢ $757 $1,032 +$275 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 98¢ $7 $20 +$12 (+165%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 48¢ $24 $2 −$22 (-93%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 95¢ $836 $0 −$836 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $64 +$8 +13%
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 17 $135 +$3 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $896 −$16 -2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $241 −$188 -78%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $107 +$33 +31%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $780 +$20 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $87 +$13 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $33 +$15 +47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $760 +$43 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +48%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $837 +$62 +7%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $85 +$15 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $693 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $460 +$39 +9%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $14 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $158 +$16 +10%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $85 +$7 +9%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $53 +$9 +18%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $225 +$22 +10%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 16 $134 +$11 +8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 +$7 +32%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $801 +$24 +3%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $807 +$24 +3%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $703 +$51 +7%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $577 +$23 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $601 +$18 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $56 −$16 -28%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $135 −$130 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $94 +$24 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $1 +$1 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +286%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $364 +$36 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $84 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$24 -87%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $96 +$8 +8%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $479 +$20 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$5 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $149 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $21 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $320 24m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 74¢ $211 37m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $73 39m
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 88¢ $138 39m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $36 47m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 96¢ $801 59m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 93¢ $783 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 93¢ $54 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 88¢ $58 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 91¢ $544 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 91¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 91¢ $136 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 91¢ $136 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner SELL Cloud Rising $43 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 10¢ $77 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $49 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 18¢ $53 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $780 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 70¢ $13 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 78¢ $16 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 78¢ $5 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 78¢ $4 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 78¢ $100 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 78¢ $4 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 78¢ $23 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 78¢ $4 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $48 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 85¢ $12 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,055.70 · official $1,055.70 (match) · 2681 history records