Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0787…c6e4 other 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$138 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$30
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$43
sports 24% −$21
culture 8% −$8
politics 7% +$49
economics 6% −$7
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage140d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $56 +$56 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $391 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $595 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $587 −$2 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $467 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $542 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $592 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $157 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $390 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $656 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $215 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $216 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $443 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $315 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $326 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 19m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 3h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $38 8h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $38 9h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 11h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 12h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 15h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 17h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 20h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 22h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 26h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 26h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 28h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 30h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 31h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 33h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 35h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 35h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 42h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 43h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $57 45h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $57 47h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.07 · official $56.07 (match) · 1441 history records