Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
07 0x0787…0ca3 world 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,169 (+12%) realized +$8,934 · open +$235
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate63%126W / 74L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4,765now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$339
7 days+$4,850
14 days+$8,946
30 days+$8,832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$8,578
other 13% +$1,142
politics 4% +$151
finance 2% −$3
tech 1% +$16
economics 0% +$7
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +7.4% -2.9% 72% 28% +2.5%
≤30d 135 +31.0% +18.5% 70% 37% +3.9%
≤90d 200 +21.1% +9.6% 63% 36% +4.3%
all 200 +21.1% +9.6% 63% 36% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.6% 36% +4.3%
10% ← realistic here -0.9% 21% -5.7%
15% -10.5% 14% -14.8%
20% -19.2% 12% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$17 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.09 per $1 lost it wins $9.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$4,765
Realized+$8,934
Unrealized+$235
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses126 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions52
Markets (closed)200 / 252
History coverage59d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $579 $602 +$23 (+4%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $587 $595 +$9 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $449 $519 +$70 (+16%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 83¢ 92¢ $371 $411 +$40 (+11%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 82¢ 85¢ $246 $255 +$9 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 99¢ $172 $197 +$26 (+15%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 63¢ 86¢ $138 $189 +$51 (+37%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 80¢ 97¢ $147 $178 +$31 (+21%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 61¢ 61¢ $174 $174 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $184 $161 −$24 (-13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $137 $143 +$6 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $136 $134 −$2 (-1%)
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $129 $123 −$6 (-4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 66¢ 99¢ $79 $119 +$40 (+50%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No 66¢ 78¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $81 $92 +$11 (+14%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 56¢ $61 $83 +$22 (+35%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 93¢ 95¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 52¢ 43¢ $57 $47 −$10 (-18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 88¢ 91¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 82¢ 85¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 45¢ 28¢ $62 $38 −$25 (-40%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 84¢ 86¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $84 +$21 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $510 +$20 +4%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $713 +$34 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $644 +$156 +24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,244 +$98 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,404 +$267 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 15 $17 +$5 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $2,482 +$707 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $2,697 +$301 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,053 −$47 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $441 +$259 +59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $374 +$284 +76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $465 −$2 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,094 +$93 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $1,296 +$104 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $1,154 +$43 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $446 +$54 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $111 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $471 −$19 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $457 +$43 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2,336 +$188 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $456 −$24 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,438 +$128 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $39 +$8 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $678 −$7 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 14 $196 +$10 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $990 +$13 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $166 −$16 -10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1,221 +$59 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $60 +$3 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 13 $337 −$2 -1%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $182 +$8 +4%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $114 +$1 +1%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $895 +$72 +8%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $174 −$17 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $585 +$35 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $7,500 +$1,945 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $384 +$16 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $46 +$4 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $703 +$40 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $259 +$57 +22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $203 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 84¢ $126 3m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 58¢ $11 4m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $17 5m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 65¢ $15 7m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 65¢ $18 9m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 13m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 20m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 93¢ $93 20m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 26m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $24 38m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 75¢ $29 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 75¢ $6 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 52m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 79¢ $40 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 74¢ $1 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 74¢ $1 53m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 73¢ $36 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 89¢ $42 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 88¢ $2 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 55m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 65¢ $10 56m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 56m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 63¢ $21 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,765.36 · official $4,779.96 (match) · 3169 history records