Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0787…43d5 sports 288 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,196 (+8%) realized +$1,230 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%139W / 148L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$237est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$93
14 days+$38
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$917
crypto 7% +$44
other 3% −$166
politics 0% +$122
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +25.7% +13.7% 62% 57% +9.3%
≤30d 89 -13.1% -21.4% 43% 39% -22.7%
≤90d 287 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 46% -2.1%
all 287 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 46% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 46% -2.1%
10% -19.4% 42% -11.4%
15% -27.2% 37% -20.0%
20% -34.3% 32% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$36 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,230
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses139 / 148
Est. fees paid−$237
Open positions1
Markets (closed)287 / 288
History coverage86d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Nick Kyrgios 56¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $27 +$48 +181%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $31 +$46 +151%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $14 +$12 +86%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $13 +$17 +129%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $30 +$25 +82%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $14 −$2 -11%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $7 +$7 +101%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $18 +$19 +109%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $19 −$1 -6%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 21 $35 +$15 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $15 +$20 +128%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $19 −$18 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $34 −$34 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $22 +$12 +52%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 18 $18 +$1 +3%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $19 +$3 +18%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $32 −$32 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $19 +$14 +73%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $75 −$75 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $25 +$19 +76%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $10 +$25 +250%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $26 +$9 +34%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $18 +$10 +54%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $6 +$2 +41%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $29 −$11 -37%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $18 +$4 +24%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $15 +$5 +31%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis Jun 07 $9 +$6 +64%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $19 −$9 -46%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $45 +$4 +10%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $7 +$1 +14%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $48 −$47 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $18 −$17 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $14 −$14 -98%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 56¢ $34 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 100¢ $75 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 35¢ $27 2h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce SELL Jan-Lennard Struff 100¢ $77 2h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 44¢ $20 2h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 32¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin 50¢ $6 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $26 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Clara Tauson 53¢ $14 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 43¢ $13 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 100¢ $55 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Magdalena Frech 25¢ $13 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 27¢ $14 24h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $14 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 54¢ $30 26h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 49¢ $7 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 100¢ $37 26h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 95¢ $0 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 47¢ $18 29h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 33¢ $18 29h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 34¢ $19 29h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Diane Parry 76¢ $50 32h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns BUY San Francisco Unicorns 69¢ $35 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $35 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $15 45h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 12¢ $3 47h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 70¢ $19 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 63¢ $34 3d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston SELL Ann Li 100¢ $34 4d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 65¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 692 history records