Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0789…8bc7 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$7
other 18% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 9 +1.3% -8.3% 33% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 9 +1.3% -8.3% 33% 0% -8.3%
all 27 +0.3% -9.2% 52% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.37 per $1 lost it wins $8.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage468d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $59 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $58 +$6 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $51 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $75 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 25 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $9 $0 -2%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 30 $17 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 14 $1 $0 -13%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Illinois win the Big Ten conference tournament? Mar 14 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $34 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $53 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $52 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $52 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $25 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $51 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $51 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $52 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $52 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $22 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $13 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $10 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 15¢ $4 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 15¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.40 · official $33.40 (match) · 89 history records