Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0792…ad76 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$172 (+1%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$188
sports 13% +$12
politics 7% $0
crypto 2% −$109
world 2% +$4
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.4%
all 123 -8.5% -17.2% 18% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 2% -9.0%
10% -25.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -32.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -39.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage635d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3,018 +$49 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $424 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $304 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 22 $94 +$26 +28%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $111 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $3,761 +$31 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $994 +$85 +9%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 25 $136 −$1 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 11 $110 +$26 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 3PM ET Oct 09 $65 −$63 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 2PM ET Oct 09 $36 −$34 -94%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 09 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Celtic win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Fenerbahce win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11? Aug 10 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $217 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $55 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $195 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $535 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $345 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $346 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $214 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $46 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $47 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $173 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $145 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $301 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $37 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $59 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $54 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 521 history records