Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x0793…2723 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 29% −$16
politics 15% $0
sports 5% +$1
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 15 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 0% -8.9%
all 43 -9.0% -17.7% 49% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -10.9%
10% -25.6% 0% -19.4%
15% -32.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -39.3% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage477d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $7 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $37 +$3 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $28 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $6 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $32 −$2 -8%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 23 $16 $0 -1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? Apr 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Apr 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 11 $19 $0 -1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 07 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of EPL? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 11 $18 $0 +1%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 06 $16 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $28 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $23 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $3 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $31 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $31 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $7 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $7 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $28 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $28 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $2 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $0 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $20 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $11 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $28 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records