Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x079a…d3df sports 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate75%203W / 68L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$654per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$698est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$395
14 days+$646
30 days+$1,037
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$446
other 5% +$10
culture 3% +$51
world 0% +$22
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.9% -10.3% 91% 6% -6.7%
≤30d 102 +8.4% -1.9% 84% 16% -7.1%
≤90d 254 +2.0% -7.7% 75% 22% -8.6%
all 271 +2.4% -7.4% 75% 23% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 23% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 10% -18.4%
15% -24.3% 6% -26.2%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$990) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$170 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses203 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$698
Open positions1
Markets (closed)271 / 272
History coverage112d
Avg bet$654
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Namibia 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win? Jun 20 $247 +$20 +8%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $980 +$20 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $277 +$23 +8%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $557 +$54 +10%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $281 +$20 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $89 −$66 -74%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $354 +$3 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $301 +$29 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $381 +$19 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $280 +$20 +7%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $586 +$12 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $377 +$23 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $181 +$19 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $990 +$9 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $381 +$19 +5%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $1,089 +$8 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $373 +$20 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $277 +$23 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $373 +$27 +7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Who wins the toss? Jun 15 $96 +$1 +1%
Paul vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $247 −$1 -0%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $169 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $173 +$27 +16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $333 +$7 +2%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1,081 +$39 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $373 +$27 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $373 +$27 +7%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $357 +$39 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $162 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $300 +$11 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $397 +$33 +8%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi - Who wins the toss? Jun 11 $62 +$2 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $373 +$27 +7%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 11 $169 +$29 +17%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 11 $1,089 +$10 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $141 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Zimbabwe High Performance Xi vs Brazil Jun 10 $372 +$7 +2%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $1,005 +$10 +1%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire - Completed match? Jun 10 $97 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $990 +$9 +1%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $1,306 +$15 +1%
T20 Blast, Women: Lancashire Thunder vs Hampshire - Completed match? Jun 09 $70 +$2 +2%
T20 Blast, Women: Lancashire Thunder vs Hampshire Jun 09 $700 +$21 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $680 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria BUY Namibia 99¢ $4 1h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria BUY Namibia 99¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 89¢ $200 2h
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 90¢ $68 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 99¢ $47 5h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 98¢ $954 11h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 98¢ $26 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $246 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $36 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 17¢ $23 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 63¢ $89 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $281 20h
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 23h
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 82¢ $164 23h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 99¢ $70 24h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 99¢ $284 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $277 31h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $275 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $280 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $381 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $301 2d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 98¢ $49 2d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 98¢ $475 2d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 98¢ $49 2d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 98¢ $13 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $181 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 100¢ $999 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 99¢ $990 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $381 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $377 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.99 · official $13.99 (match) · 1220 history records