Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x079d…9cc2 crypto 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-2%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate91%280W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$27
14 days−$19
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$59
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -3.4% -12.6% 92% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 308 -1.1% -10.6% 91% 12% -12.5%
≤90d 308 -1.1% -10.6% 91% 12% -12.5%
all 308 -1.1% -10.6% 91% 12% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 12% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 5% -20.9%
15% -26.9% 3% -28.5%
20% -34.1% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses280 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)308 / 308
History coverage15d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 308 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 752 history records