Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07a8…6872 crypto 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-11%) realized −$76 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%24W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$32
crypto 28% −$22
other 26% +$34
politics 2% −$14
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +75.7% +59.0% 57% 57% +29.0%
≤30d 11 +27.3% +15.1% 36% 36% +3.2%
≤90d 98 -20.0% -27.6% 24% 23% -14.9%
all 102 -22.2% -29.6% 24% 23% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 23% -17.4%
10% -36.3% 21% -25.3%
15% -42.5% 20% -32.5%
20% -48.1% 19% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses24 / 78
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 107
History coverage114d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $25 $16 −$8 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $54 −$2 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $60 +$34 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $15 +$28 +184%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $36 −$19 -52%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$35 +344%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $17 −$17 -99%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 06 $24 −$6 -25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $19 −$19 -99%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 03 $20 −$1 -5%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $9 +$2 +26%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $9 −$9 -98%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $8 +$1 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $7 −$7 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, P May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 02 $10 +$1 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) May 02 $5 +$6 +128%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $7 +$4 +50%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 02 $11 −$4 -38%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "White House Doctor" in April? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Palestine" in April? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 26 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Trump say "UFC" or "Dana White" this week? (April 20 - 26) Apr 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 26 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Trump say "Trump Strait" or "Strait of Trump" this week? (April 2 Apr 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "My Father" or "Fred" this week? (April 20 - 26) Apr 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Boy oh boy" this week? (April 20 - 26) Apr 26 $2 −$2 -96%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Youssef Zalal win by KO or TKO? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig Apr 26 $4 +$7 +185%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $5 +$4 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 26 $6 +$9 +158%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Apr 26 $5 +$3 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 25 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 33¢ $52 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $52 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $54 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 100¢ $94 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 63¢ $60 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 14¢ $5 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $9 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 35¢ $15 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $18 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $17 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $18 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $9 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 15¢ $17 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $17 15d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $19 17d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 17d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 40d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 44¢ $9 42d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL King Green 100¢ $11 42d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY King Green 79¢ $9 42d
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P SELL Baisangur Susurkaev 100¢ $9 42d
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P BUY Baisangur Susurkaev 88¢ $8 42d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 47d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 47d
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Tai Tuivasa 69¢ $7 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.47 · official $84.69 · 172 history records