Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07aa…d55b crypto 1114 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (267 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$390 (-7%) realized −$390 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%483W / 630L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day267.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$79
14 days−$264
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (267 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 403 -4.2% -13.3% 57% 51% -13.2%
≤30d 1113 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 39% -13.8%
≤90d 1113 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 39% -13.8%
all 1113 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 39% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover267.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 39% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 34% -22.1%
15% -28.2% 22% -29.6%
20% -35.2% 10% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$390
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses483 / 630
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1113 / 1114
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day267.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -61%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -55%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -65%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -88%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 21m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 23m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $2 37m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.37 · official $1.22 (match) · 3500 history records