Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07aa…b3cb sports 49 markets active 7d ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-30%) realized −$27 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$9
sports 32% −$21
world 31% −$5
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +339.8% +297.9% 50% 50% +165.3%
≤30d 2 +339.8% +297.9% 50% 50% +165.3%
≤90d 24 -24.7% -31.9% 12% 12% -38.0%
all 41 -26.8% -33.7% 24% 24% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 24% -43.8%
10% -40.1% 20% -49.2%
15% -45.9% 20% -54.1%
20% -51.2% 20% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)41 / 49
History coverage385d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 44¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Yes 24¢ 3¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $1 +$8 +780%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: July Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. Knicks Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Netanyahu out by 2025? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-27? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? Apr 13 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Apr 13 $1 +$2 +233%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Apr 13 $2 +$9 +426%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Jan 07 $1 +$1 +82%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Dec 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Aug 27 $2 $0 +18%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? Aug 05 $1 +$1 +117%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 16 $2 +$3 +150%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? May 28 $1 +$1 +61%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $2 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 6d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 61d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Trail Blazers 18¢ $2 61d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? BUY No 6¢ $1 64d
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 30¢ $1 160d
Clippers vs. Knicks BUY Clippers 38¢ $1 160d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 160d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 166d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans BUY Trail Blazers 55¢ $1 166d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans BUY Trail Blazers 61¢ $2 187d
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $2 187d
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 187d
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 208d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 44¢ $5 236d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 55¢ $20 269d
Will Fenerbahçe win on 2025-08-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 293d
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 293d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 293d
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 293d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 293d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 293d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 293d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 293d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 293d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.86 · official $12.86 (match) · 121 history records