Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07ab…e583 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+13%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$6
sports 30% +$16
crypto 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -22.6% -30.0% 45% 41% -9.5%
≤30d 24 -21.9% -29.3% 46% 42% -10.4%
≤90d 24 -21.9% -29.3% 46% 42% -10.4%
all 24 -21.9% -29.3% 46% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 42% -10.4%
10% -36.1% 42% -19.0%
15% -42.3% 33% -26.8%
20% -47.9% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $71 +$18 +25%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$35 +116%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$23 +113%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +42%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$13 +128%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$9 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$11 +84%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $89 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $71 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $20 4h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $20 6h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $17 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $36 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $43 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $30 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 22h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $10 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $15 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $4 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $11 28h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $23 29h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $10 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $10 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records