Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07ac…cdb4 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$6
other 23% +$2
sports 9% −$4
crypto 8% $0
politics 8% $0
culture 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 12 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -10.5%
all 52 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage482d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $39 −$5 -12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $9 $0 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $80 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $44 −$2 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? May 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $11 $0 -2%
Starmer out before July? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 10 $38 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $18 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 28 $19 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 30 $0 $0 -27%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
Utah vs. Arizona Mar 20 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Leicester win on 2025-02-27? Mar 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Sabres vs. Hurricanes Feb 27 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $39 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $39 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $41 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $41 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $43 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $42 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $7 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $31 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $7 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $30 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $41 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $41 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $26 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.60 · official $34.40 (match) · 151 history records