Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07b1…b027 sports 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$461 (+7%) realized +$492 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%58W / 188L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$654
7 days+$654
14 days+$654
30 days+$654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$562
world 9% −$7
other 8% −$12
crypto 5% −$11
finance 5% −$6
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +31.5% +19.0% 28% 20% +9.7%
≤30d 127 +31.5% +19.0% 28% 20% +9.7%
≤90d 246 +10.2% -0.3% 24% 12% +2.4%
all 246 +10.2% -0.3% 24% 12% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 12% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 11% -7.4%
15% -18.5% 11% -16.4%
20% -26.5% 9% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$3 · ×6.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$492
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses58 / 188
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions10
Markets (closed)246 / 256
History coverage40d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ 98¢ $40 $81 +$41 (+103%)
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Chicago Sky 23¢ 40¢ $40 $70 +$30 (+76%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ 99¢ $38 $58 +$19 (+51%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Ion Cutelaba 26¢ 26¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 62¢ $24 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 173.5 Under 50¢ 62¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+25%)
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Chicago Sky 49¢ 60¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Houston Astros 42¢ 2¢ $32 $2 −$30 (-95%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 35¢ 1¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-98%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 49¢ 4¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card) Andre Fili 30¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $40 +$44 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $41 +$126 +307%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $40 +$17 +42%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 20 $17 +$63 +365%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $25 +$18 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $25 +$48 +188%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $40 +$29 +73%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $40 −$39 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $43 −$3 -6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 $0 -1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $63 −$5 -8%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $69 −$2 -3%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $17 +$2 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $8 +$2 +19%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $42 −$8 -18%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $25 +$11 +44%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $19 +$8 +42%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $26 +$474 +1845%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $19 +$16 +83%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $6 +$4 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $25 +$26 +101%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $19 +$18 +94%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $25 +$63 +247%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $25 +$35 +140%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $30 −$25 -82%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $48 −$1 -3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $27 −$2 -6%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $14 $0 -4%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 20 $27 −$2 -6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $18 −$2 -10%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $91 −$3 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $18 −$2 -10%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $18 −$4 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 49¢ $6 46m
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 50¢ $16 54m
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 23¢ $41 57m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 26¢ $41 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 24¢ $41 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 47¢ $40 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $5 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $39 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 35¢ $41 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 42¢ $32 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $40 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 30¢ $41 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 70¢ $40 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY No 57¢ $40 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $40 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 21¢ $9 1h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 21¢ $5 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 57¢ $25 2h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 17¢ $5 3h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 9¢ $26 3h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $20 3h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 21¢ $17 3h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $5 4h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 45¢ $6 4h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 34¢ $25 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $20 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 5¢ $26 4h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 70¢ $19 5h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 35¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.19 · official $300.38 · 1866 history records