Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07b2…5186 sports 35 markets active 2d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-14%) realized −$110 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$119
14 days−$127
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$36
sports 44% −$70
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.2% -24.2% 44% 44% -57.1%
≤30d 31 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 52% -23.4%
≤90d 31 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 52% -23.4%
all 31 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 52% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 52% -23.4%
10% -18.7% 45% -30.7%
15% -26.5% 42% -37.4%
20% -33.7% 32% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage14d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+132%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $10 −$4 -42%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 +$12 +114%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$12 +114%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$3 +67%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $50 +$23 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $6 40h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $100 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 65¢ $10 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $5 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 9d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $50 9d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $1 9d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $10 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 12d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $5 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.12 · official $26.24 (match) · 65 history records