Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x07b5…805e other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$742 (+16%) realized +$661 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate86%19W / 3L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$721
14 days+$721
30 days+$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$769
sports 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +33.3% +20.6% 86% 73% +6.1%
≤30d 22 +33.3% +20.6% 86% 73% +6.1%
≤90d 22 +33.3% +20.6% 86% 73% +6.1%
all 22 +33.3% +20.6% 86% 73% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 73% +6.1%
10% +9.0% 45% -4.0%
15% -1.5% 32% -13.3%
20% -11.2% 27% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$158 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$421
Realized+$661
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses19 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage7d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 78¢ 98¢ $317 $397 +$79 (+25%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $165 +$34 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $392 +$47 +12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $14 +$48 +344%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $255 −$254 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$79 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $430 +$90 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $268 +$162 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $144 +$72 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $112 +$32 +29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $208 −$203 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $267 +$281 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $234 +$34 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $186 +$48 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $171 +$14 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $129 +$44 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $118 +$10 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $75 +$45 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$45 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 5m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $99 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $201 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $150 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 89¢ $392 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $255 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $400 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $260 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $144 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 77¢ $112 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $208 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $267 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $234 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $186 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.07 · official $421.07 (match) · 52 history records