Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07b7…99f2 world 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%30W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$6
politics 18% +$1
other 17% −$10
sports 8% −$1
economics 6% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.0% -13.1% 45% 9% -8.2%
≤30d 32 -5.3% -14.3% 38% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 80 -2.2% -11.5% 34% 2% -9.6%
all 84 -3.2% -12.4% 36% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses30 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage528d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $63 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $67 +$3 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $91 −$5 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $116 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $74 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $123 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $17 −$5 -27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $44 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $4 $0 +9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $46 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $48 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $97 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $44 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $29 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $28 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $7 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $7 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $24 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $36 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $34 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $22 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $14 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $36 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $24 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $7 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.00 (match) · 396 history records