Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07bf…0970 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1
other 22% +$1
politics 17% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 43 -0.2% -9.7% 26% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage336d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $55 −$2 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 +$2 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Aug 10 $74 +$2 +2%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 25 $1 $0 -5%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $9 $0 -2%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $75 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 23 $73 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 23 $72 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 23 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 23 $73 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 23 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $23 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $42 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $42 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $32 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $7 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $38 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $42 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $42 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.17 · official $41.17 (match) · 135 history records