Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07c1…f3e2 other 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-12%) realized −$74 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%54W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$13
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$15
other 36% −$3
sports 16% −$40
world 2% −$4
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +36.3% +23.3% 45% 40% -17.0%
≤30d 41 +38.7% +25.5% 46% 41% -15.3%
≤90d 88 -12.3% -20.7% 35% 33% -42.0%
all 122 -2.5% -11.8% 44% 40% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 40% -20.9%
10% -20.2% 35% -28.5%
15% -27.9% 30% -35.4%
20% -35.0% 22% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses54 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)122 / 134
History coverage259d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+122%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 78¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 15¢ 43¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+187%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Yes 19¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Abdullah Al Hamdan: 1+ shots Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Moisés Caicedo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$5 +238%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots Jun 16 $1 +$5 +567%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +216%
Brian Rodríguez: 1+ shots Jun 16 $2 +$8 +400%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots Jun 15 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -75%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 +$4 +380%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$6 +185%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$9 +900%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +33%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 06 $2 +$3 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 21 $4 −$3 -78%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Barracas Central vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? Apr 21 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vaishali R win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? Apr 16 $2 +$4 +148%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $1 28m
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $2 28m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $4 45m
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $2 49m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $4 3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $0 23h
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $2 24h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $2 24h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $3 24h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots BUY Yes 15¢ $1 26h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots BUY Yes 15¢ $0 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 26h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 47h
Brian Rodríguez: 1+ shots BUY Yes 20¢ $2 47h
Abdullah Al Hamdan: 1+ shots BUY Yes 30¢ $2 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots SELL No 1¢ $0 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots BUY No 19¢ $1 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots SELL Yes 85¢ $4 2d
Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots SELL Yes 70¢ $4 2d
Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $4 2d
Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $4 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots SELL Yes 90¢ $4 2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots BUY Yes 70¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.41 · official $38.86 (match) · 339 history records