Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07c1…11af other 132 markets active 1d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$27 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,006per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$26
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$71
other 36% +$472
sports 16% −$350
culture 4% −$6
world 2% −$24
crypto 2% −$18
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -13.1% -21.4% 8% 5% -10.0%
all 131 -1.3% -10.7% 15% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 12% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 12% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 11% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,452) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$12 · ×5.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$781
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,006
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $781 $781 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $1,335 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $3,234 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,649 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,785 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,300 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,402 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,194 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $481 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 04 $807 +$1 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,075 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,794 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $5,615 −$6 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,156 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,018 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $3,814 −$5 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $1,594 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 05 $908 +$665 +73%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,197 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,795 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,541 −$3 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,812 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,271 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,999 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $424 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $355 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,389 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $377 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $431 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $431 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $260 −$200 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 10 $102 −$3 -3%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $33 −$16 -50%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $1,441 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $782 24h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,334 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,335 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,641 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,643 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,584 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,587 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,637 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,640 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,646 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,649 5d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,618 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,620 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,291 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,293 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,400 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,402 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,393 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,395 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,239 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,241 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $552 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $553 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $651 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $652 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $618 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $619 20d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $522 20d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $523 20d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $614 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $780.63 · official $780.63 (match) · 438 history records