Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x07c2…8a10 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% $0
other 17% +$6
sports 15% −$4
crypto 4% −$1
politics 4% +$5
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.4% -10.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 30 +5.1% -4.9% 57% 17% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 17% -7.9%
10% -14.0% 13% -16.7%
15% -22.3% 10% -24.8%
20% -29.9% 7% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage485d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 23 $5 +$6 +120%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 23 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 26? Mar 03 $9 $0 +1%
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Mar 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Thunder vs. Nets Feb 26 $23 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $23 $0 +2%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Feb 25 $23 $0 +0%
North Alabama vs. Central Arkansas Feb 24 $14 +$9 +70%
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? Feb 23 $10 +$4 +38%
Arkansas vs. Auburn Feb 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $33 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $9 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $16 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $26 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $1 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $23 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $24 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $29 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $29 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $42 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $43 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $15 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $15 30d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 337d
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? SELL No 100¢ $11 357d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 357d
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? BUY No 96¢ $11 388d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 389d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 390d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 390d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 391d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? SELL No 98¢ $11 391d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 97¢ $11 391d
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 46¢ $5 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.14 · official $0.94 (match) · 81 history records