Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
07 0x07c3…d8bc sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$23 (-52%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$23
sports 46% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +67.4% +51.4% 50% 50% +51.2%
≤30d 3 +11.6% +1.0% 33% 33% -29.7%
≤90d 3 +11.6% +1.0% 33% 33% -29.7%
all 3 +11.6% +1.0% 33% 33% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 33% -29.7%
10% -8.7% 33% -36.4%
15% -17.5% 33% -42.5%
20% -25.6% 33% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage9d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$2 -24%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $10 +$16 +159%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 −$23 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 12¢ $8 41m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $26 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records