Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07c6…76f3 crypto 460 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate72%329W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$0
14 days−$18
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$11
other 22% +$34
weather 20% −$25
sports 8% −$47
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -28.4% -35.2% 56% 41% -9.5%
≤30d 138 -8.2% -16.9% 78% 15% -10.3%
≤90d 455 -2.9% -12.1% 72% 42% -10.3%
all 455 -2.9% -12.1% 72% 42% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 42% -10.3%
10% -20.6% 27% -18.9%
15% -28.2% 14% -26.7%
20% -35.3% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses329 / 126
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)455 / 460
History coverage83d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 94¢ 98¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 71¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$4 +13%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $28 +$7 +24%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 $0 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$3 -35%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$3 +5%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 $0 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $90 +$11 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$35 -35%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$13 +26%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $34 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 11h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $30 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 85¢ $20 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $30 16h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $25 30h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 36h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $20 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $20 36h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $10 36h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $30 36h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $70 40h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $18 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $30 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.32 · official $86.16 (match) · 1153 history records