Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07ca…ffaa other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 102L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$9
politics 32% −$7
sports 14% +$22
crypto 6% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 116 -2.0% -11.3% 12% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 7% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage131d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $322 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $338 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $127 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $140 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $295 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $284 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 09 $171 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $270 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $336 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $154 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $570 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 12 $149 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 6h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 15h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 18h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 24h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 27h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 40h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 44h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $17 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $17 7d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $22 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $22 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $18 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $18 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $25 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $21 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 16d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 21d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $29 22d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $29 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $181 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 347 history records