Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07ca…b8be sports 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$96 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%145W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$246
14 days+$259
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$166
other 23% +$308
politics 7% −$121
world 0% −$15
tech 0% −$14
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +3.7% -6.2% 66% 50% -0.7%
≤30d 103 -2.0% -11.4% 59% 48% -5.2%
≤90d 247 -8.0% -16.8% 59% 48% -10.3%
all 247 -8.0% -16.8% 59% 48% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 48% -10.3%
10% -24.8% 36% -18.9%
15% -32.0% 30% -26.7%
20% -38.7% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses145 / 102
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage78d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 76¢ 90¢ $350 $415 +$65 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $211 +$39 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 29 $69 −$68 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $1 +$6 +550%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 +$3 +50%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $151 +$22 +14%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $99 +$8 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +83%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 28 $24 +$5 +21%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $34 +$12 +34%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +50%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 27 $291 +$34 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $77 +$6 +7%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $200 +$15 +7%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $7 −$6 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 26 $250 +$29 +12%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $235 +$21 +9%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $122 +$16 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $24 −$1 -4%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $201 +$19 +10%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $177 +$31 +17%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 +$15 +24%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 +$3 +128%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$45 +46%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$7 +69%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $108 +$3 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +62%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$8 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $161 +$12 +7%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$10 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 63¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $151 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $101 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $101 11h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 91¢ $60 11h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 90¢ $50 11h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 28¢ $5 13h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 59¢ $10 14h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 41¢ $20 14h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 62¢ $38 16h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 87¢ $50 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 87¢ $100 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 23h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 25¢ $2 37h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 94¢ $108 38h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $50 39h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 90¢ $49 39h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 59¢ $2 40h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 82¢ $14 42h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 82¢ $10 42h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 54¢ $1 42h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Ghana 74¢ $34 45h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 90¢ $201 2d
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 88¢ $90 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $5 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $200 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $77 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.52 · official $414.52 (match) · 732 history records