Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x07cd…fbeb
crypto · 979 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$6,635 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,664 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,755
Realized+$6,664
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses654 / 358
Est. fees paid−$321
Open positions191
Markets (closed)1012 / 979
History coverage4d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day658.8
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 191 History 1012 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,939
7 days+$6,664
14 days+$6,664
30 days+$6,664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 100¢ $80 $105 +$25 (+32%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 68¢ $80 $103 +$23 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? No 77¢ 100¢ $77 $100 +$23 (+30%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 42¢ 52¢ $80 $99 +$19 (+24%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 41¢ 44¢ $80 $87 +$7 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? No 94¢ 100¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 93¢ 96¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 55¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 57¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 60¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 79¢ 80¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Australia 69¢ 69¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ 74¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 84¢ 84¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Paraguay 78¢ 78¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ 68¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? No 79¢ 76¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-4%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 84¢ 80¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $72 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 86¢ 89¢ $68 $71 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 83¢ 90¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 86¢ 100¢ $42 $49 +$7 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 63¢ 70¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 12 $20 +$9 +47%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 +54%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 175.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 +96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-08? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Senshi Esports Club vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FBC Melgar win on 2026-05-22? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5 Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: SU Esports vs BoostGate Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 55% +$8,172
crypto 31% +$819
other 8% +$149
weather 4% +$203
tech 0% −$37
world 0% +$8
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% +$10
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 78¢ $5 5m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $7 5m
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 70¢ $10 7m
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $10 7m
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $30 7m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 91¢ $5 13m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 91¢ $5 13m
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY MASONIC 66¢ $10 17m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $5 19m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 20m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 20m
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group BUY MASONIC 52¢ $6 26m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $30 26m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $10 26m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $31 28m
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $10 28m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $10 32m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $30 32m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $30 32m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $10 32m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $5 33m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 33m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 33m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 33m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 33m
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $5 35m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $5 53m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1012 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 39% +7.4%
≤30d 1012 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 39% +7.4%
≤90d 1012 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 39% +7.4%
all 1012 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 39% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover658.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 39% +7.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 27% -2.9%
15% -32.8% 20% -12.3%
20% -39.4% 14% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,755.17 · official $3,724.49 (match) · 3500 history records