Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x07ce…75e0 sports 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$713 (-2%) realized −$710 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%93W / 51L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$489
14 days−$280
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$681
other 25% −$106
world 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.3% -10.7% 75% 50% -18.0%
≤30d 30 +0.3% -9.2% 80% 40% -10.8%
≤90d 33 +1.1% -8.5% 82% 39% -9.5%
all 144 -5.7% -14.6% 65% 47% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 47% -11.9%
10% -22.8% 29% -20.4%
15% -30.3% 8% -28.1%
20% -37.1% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$75 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized−$710
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses93 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage206d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $464 $461 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $357 +$109 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $578 −$221 -38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $431 +$147 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $343 +$88 +26%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $106 +$16 +15%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $171 +$50 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $141 +$30 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $399 −$258 -65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $290 +$109 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $653 −$363 -56%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $630 +$14 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $281 −$280 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $119 +$9 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $351 +$20 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $270 +$15 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $111 +$25 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $183 +$18 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $599 +$51 +8%
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 11 $147 −$14 -9%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ukraine? Jun 09 $200 +$14 +7%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $134 +$41 +31%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $160 +$15 +10%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $145 +$16 +11%
Slovenia vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $160 +$15 +10%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $201 +$37 +19%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $165 +$15 +9%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 05 $723 +$14 +2%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $661 +$63 +10%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 23 $586 +$85 +14%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 May 20 $546 +$40 +7%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5 May 19 $528 +$19 +4%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 May 18 $450 +$77 +17%
Will Toulon win? Feb 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Ireland win? Feb 14 $147 −$24 -16%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $203 −$55 -27%
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 12 $321 −$118 -37%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $105 +$20 +19%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $214 +$87 +41%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5 Feb 11 $276 −$64 -23%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 11 $214 +$60 +28%
Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Feb 10 $167 +$50 +30%
Will Atalanta BC vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Feb 09 $139 +$27 +20%
Will Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Feb 09 $109 +$31 +28%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $143 −$34 -24%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $141 +$2 +2%
FC Nordsjælland vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $605 −$125 -21%
FC Utrecht vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 1.5 Feb 08 $341 −$87 -26%
AS Saint-Étienne vs. Montpellier HSC: O/U 1.5 Feb 07 $696 −$346 -50%
Will the match end in a draw? Feb 07 $681 +$18 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $467 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $357 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $357 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $578 39h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $431 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $343 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $112 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $171 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $141 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $141 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $399 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $290 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 39¢ $290 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $653 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $644 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $630 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $281 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $119 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $351 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $270 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $111 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $183 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $599 8d
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $133 8d
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $147 8d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $106 8d
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $134 10d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ukraine? BUY No 93¢ $200 10d
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $160 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.11 · official $461.17 (match) · 351 history records