Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07d1…439e sports 755 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$333 (+2%) realized +$251 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%345W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$121
14 days−$57
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$87
other 13% +$40
world 12% +$146
politics 4% +$170
culture 0% −$58
finance 0% +$26
tech 0% +$21
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 60% -5.2%
≤30d 626 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% -8.5%
≤90d 634 -2.2% -11.5% 53% 53% -8.5%
all 649 -1.8% -11.2% 53% 52% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 52% -8.4%
10% -19.7% 47% -17.1%
15% -27.4% 41% -25.1%
20% -34.5% 35% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$2,285
Realized+$251
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses345 / 304
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions106
Markets (closed)649 / 755
History coverage94d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 106 History 649 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 91¢ 99¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $48 $55 +$6 (+13%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $51 $53 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $38 $50 +$11 (+29%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 67¢ 95¢ $35 $49 +$15 (+42%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 94¢ $36 $49 +$13 (+36%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 40¢ 86¢ $22 $46 +$25 (+115%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 90¢ 91¢ $46 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $17 $45 +$28 (+163%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 67¢ 99¢ $29 $43 +$14 (+48%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 93¢ $36 $43 +$6 (+17%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 51¢ 88¢ $24 $42 +$18 (+74%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $36 $39 +$3 (+10%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $38 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 67¢ 84¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 92¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 79¢ 98¢ $28 $34 +$7 (+24%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 76¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+14%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 78¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $27 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 284 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $15 +$12 +83%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $25 +$25 +101%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$14 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 +$28 +129%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +23%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 17 $33 +$8 +25%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $32 +$12 +40%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $13 −$12 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +73%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $16 +$16 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$14 +42%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +104%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$3 +13%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $23 +$6 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $23 +$12 +50%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $31 +$7 +24%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $14 +$17 +124%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $18 +$15 +86%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $46 +$9 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $13 +$22 +164%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 +$11 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $39 +$13 +34%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $19 +$13 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +25%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $23 +$8 +38%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $25 +$15 +60%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$10 +27%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$9 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$6 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $28 +$15 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $37 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 15h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 49¢ $17 15h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 19h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 31¢ $10 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 19h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $1 20h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $13 22h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $15 23h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $6 26h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $9 26h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $14 26h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Emilien Demanet 65¢ $18 26h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $11 26h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $2 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $12 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $13 26h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $36 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $13 26h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 26h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 33h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 33h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 59¢ $9 33h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 59¢ $15 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $12 33h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 59¢ $2 33h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $52 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,284.56 · official $2,284.44 (match) · 1258 history records