Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x07d3…67e2 weather 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%112W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$11
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 53 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 99 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 118 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×80.27 per $1 lost it wins $80.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses112 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage127d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $231 $231 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 25? Jun 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $154 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $193 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 10 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 08 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 6 Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $218 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 06 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 1? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $223 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $231 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $231 16h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $229 37h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $122 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $84 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $83 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $149 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $150 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $81 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $152 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $79 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $154 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $77 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $228 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $227 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $189 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $193 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $228 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $127 10d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $103 11d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $226 13d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $226 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $213 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.97 · official $230.97 (match) · 240 history records