Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

07
0x07d4…8991
tech · 129 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$108 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,373 · open −$4,581
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY tech specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,770
Realized+$3,373
Unrealized−$4,581
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 32
Open positions111
Markets (closed)40 / 129
History coverage16d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day209.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 111 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$378
7 days+$414
14 days+$2,523
30 days+$3,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $537 $873 +$335 (+62%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $473 $745 +$272 (+57%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $705 $665 −$40 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $718 $665 −$54 (-7%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $864 $654 −$210 (-24%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $590 $567 −$23 (-4%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $592 $523 −$69 (-12%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 48¢ 33¢ $580 $405 −$175 (-30%)
ECB rate cut in 2026? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $629 $385 −$244 (-39%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 43¢ 42¢ $389 $374 −$15 (-4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $561 $369 −$192 (-34%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $843 $369 −$475 (-56%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $391 $364 −$26 (-7%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1,027 $215 −$812 (-79%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $258 $209 −$49 (-19%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $240 $185 −$55 (-23%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 48¢ 56¢ $143 $166 +$24 (+16%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $144 $166 +$22 (+16%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $247 $163 −$85 (-34%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $166 $148 −$18 (-11%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $130 $140 +$10 (+8%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $319 $138 −$180 (-57%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $153 $138 −$15 (-10%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $321 $124 −$196 (-61%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $112 $108 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 13 $40 +$348 +859%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
US bank failure by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$32 +315%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $106 −$6 -6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $96 +$4 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $142 +$58 +41%
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
US bank failure by May 31? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$9 -93%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $51 +$846 +1648%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $80 +$864 +1081%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $52 +$701 +1357%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $110 +$880 +802%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$1,350
tech 22% −$1,076
politics 6% −$363
economics 4% −$929
world 2% −$159
finance 1% −$30
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +101.1% +82.0% 44% 33% +79.3%
≤30d 40 +77.6% +60.7% 20% 18% +282.0%
≤90d 40 +77.6% +60.7% 20% 18% +282.0%
all 40 +77.6% +60.7% 20% 18% +282.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover209.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +60.7% 18% +282.0%
10% ← realistic here +45.3% 18% +245.5%
15% +31.3% 18% +212.1%
20% +18.4% 15% +181.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,769.98 · official $11,769.99 (match) · 3500 history records