Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07d6…3fb0 politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%4W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$15
politics 43% −$11
world 5% −$1
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -5.6% -14.6% 3% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 51 -10.3% -18.9% 6% 2% -9.9%
all 54 -9.7% -18.3% 7% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 2% -9.9%
10% -26.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -33.3% 2% -26.4%
20% -39.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses4 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage248d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $170 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $210 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $321 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2 $0 -16%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $549 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $284 −$2 -1%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $159 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $199 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $159 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $170 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $168 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 29 $260 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1 $0 -29%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1 $0 -19%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3 $0 -16%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $4 −$1 -17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1 $0 -19%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $2 $0 -15%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $3 −$1 -52%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 17 $1 $0 -28%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $2 $0 -21%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $4 $0 -11%
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presiden Apr 24 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1 $0 -12%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $2 $0 -14%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 22 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $1 $0 -20%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 09 $158 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $4 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 56m
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 3h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 4h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 8h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 14h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 15h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 35h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 36h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $210 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $160 19d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 19d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $160 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 20d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $160 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.04 · official $169.04 (match) · 175 history records