Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:00:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x07d9…c160 sports 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$698 (+10%) realized +$705 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%121W / 129L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$586
7 days−$447
14 days+$148
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$681
other 29% −$60
crypto 2% +$48
world 1% −$51
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -48.6% -53.5% 22% 22% -48.7%
≤30d 134 +7.7% -2.6% 48% 46% -2.7%
≤90d 250 +10.5% -0.0% 48% 47% -1.6%
all 250 +10.5% -0.0% 48% 47% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 47% -1.6%
10% -9.6% 46% -11.0%
15% -18.3% 45% -19.6%
20% -26.3% 40% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized+$705
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses121 / 129
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions4
Markets (closed)250 / 257
History coverage56d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 58¢ $57 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$42 +203%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 21 $60 +$21 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $41 +$30 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 21 $41 +$35 +86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$26 +65%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $0 $0 -19%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$53 +344%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$60 +60%
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Jun 15 $102 −$23 -23%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $152 +$107 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$75 +365%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 +$103 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 +$89 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 12 $15 +$20 +129%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 12 $27 +$14 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $26 +$22 +83%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$28 +109%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $15 +$6 +39%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 08 $35 +$20 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $30 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $58 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 26h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $60 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $41 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $41 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $23 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $25 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $27 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $25 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $8 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $29 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $0 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $51 7d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $101 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 7d
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe SELL Yamal 22¢ $79 7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 50¢ $36 7d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 58¢ $152 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 60¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.04 · official $300.04 (match) · 602 history records