Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07dd…1672 other 114 markets active 1d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-14%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%24W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$16
sports 37% −$25
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +79.1% +62.0% 40% 40% +18.5%
≤30d 7 +27.9% +15.7% 29% 29% -11.6%
≤90d 89 -33.3% -39.7% 27% 26% -24.6%
all 89 -33.3% -39.7% 27% 26% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 26% -24.6%
10% -45.5% 22% -31.8%
15% -50.7% 20% -38.4%
20% -55.6% 12% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses24 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions25
Markets (closed)89 / 114
History coverage74d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 43¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +129%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +567%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $4 +$1 +24%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $3 +$2 +83%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-10? May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-10? May 05 $3 −$1 -51%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 05 $1 $0 -12%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $6 −$1 -19%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 +$3 +123%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3 +$4 +152%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 02 $6 $0 -8%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 02 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Apr 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Apr 21 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $3 −$2 -53%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $3 +$4 +146%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $4 +$1 +37%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 +$3 +152%
Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $2 $0 -5%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Scor Apr 18 $2 $0 -3%
Brentford FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 16 $3 −$1 -36%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Apr 13 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Apr 12 $4 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 32h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 19d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 23d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 23d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 24d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 24d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 24d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 24d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 24d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 24d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.26 · official $37.26 (match) · 272 history records