Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07de…5a16 other 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 222L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$48
sports 22% −$22
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage137d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $279 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $338 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $419 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $625 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $125 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $369 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $419 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $450 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $215 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $504 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $291 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $359 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $130 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $284 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $250 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 21m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 3h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $53 4h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 6h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 7h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $53 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $53 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 15h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 17h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 18h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 22h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 23h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 26h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 31h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 35h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $54 37h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 38h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 39h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 45h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 46h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.10 · official $53.10 (match) · 1446 history records