Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
07 0x07de…d541 crypto 614 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,247 (+6%) realized +$4,222 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%342W / 268L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$358
other 4% +$62
weather 2% −$359
sports 1% +$151
tech 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 15% -9.1%
≤30d 98 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 31% -12.7%
≤90d 610 -7.6% -16.4% 56% 43% -9.3%
all 610 -7.6% -16.4% 56% 43% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 43% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 32% -18.0%
15% -31.7% 24% -25.9%
20% -38.4% 16% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$55 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$740
Realized+$4,222
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses342 / 268
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)610 / 614
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$118
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 610 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 89¢ $349 $356 +$8 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $181 $195 +$14 (+8%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $186 $189 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $49 −$4 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $82 −$22 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $30 −$17 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $33 −$12 -36%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $181 +$18 +10%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $83 −$23 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $37 +$63 +167%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $232 +$44 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $408 −$26 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $280 +$20 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $18 −$9 -48%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $278 +$22 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $55 −$41 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $32 +$2 +5%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $28 +$4 +12%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 24 $492 −$8 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $69 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $57 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 −$2 -20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win Jun 21 $51 +$92 +181%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026- Jun 20 $51 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$32 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $51 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 19 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $26 −$4 -15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $48 +$11 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $112 −$44 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $51 +$19 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$18 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $53 +$47 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 −$21 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$36 +125%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$18 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 5? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 8? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $83 −$9 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $85 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $82 7h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 21h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $86 32h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $86 32h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $92 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 2d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 60¢ $59 2d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 82¢ $83 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $246 2d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $300 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $740.50 · official $740.50 (match) · 3500 history records