Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
07 0x07e0…2c27 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$344 (+24%) realized +$309 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$285
crypto 20% +$85
sports 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +30.7% +18.3% 83% 83% +22.2%
≤30d 12 +30.7% +18.3% 83% 83% +22.2%
≤90d 12 +30.7% +18.3% 83% 83% +22.2%
all 12 +30.7% +18.3% 83% 83% +22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.3% 83% +22.2%
10% +7.0% 75% +10.5%
15% -3.4% 67% -0.2%
20% -12.8% 50% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$72 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$309
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 81¢ 95¢ $127 $148 +$21 (+17%)
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $40 $66 +$26 (+64%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+59%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $251 +$115 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $87 +$112 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $129 +$59 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $81 +$48 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $140 −$139 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$59 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $128 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 24¢ $117 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 52¢ $148 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $251 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $87 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $129 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.00 · official $263.24 (match) · 28 history records