Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07e2…4b9c sports 287 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (252 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38,559 (-12%) realized −$38,589 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%132W / 154L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,119per market
Trades / day252.0pace
Fees−$4,282est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,981
7 days−$26,380
14 days−$35,793
30 days−$35,793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$35,755
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (252 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -7.9% -16.6% 50% 38% -23.3%
≤30d 286 -4.0% -13.1% 46% 36% -19.6%
≤90d 286 -4.0% -13.1% 46% 36% -19.6%
all 286 -4.0% -13.1% 46% 36% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover252.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 36% -19.6%
10% -21.4% 26% -27.3%
15% ← realistic here -29.0% 18% -34.3%
20% -36.0% 14% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$1,097) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$365 vs −$546 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized−$38,589
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses132 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$4,282
Open positions1
Markets (closed)286 / 287
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$1,119
Trades / day252.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 92¢ 70¢ $362 $278 −$85 (-23%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 15¢ 30¢ $29 $59 +$30 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $855 +$46 +5%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $55 +$67 +124%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $47 +$13 +29%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $124 +$64 +52%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,050 +$274 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $48 +$12 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,545 +$1,349 +87%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $447 −$447 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $3,275 −$3,264 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $1,235 −$111 -9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4,502 −$282 -6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $561 +$578 +103%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1,417 +$302 +21%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $680 −$515 -76%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $935 −$326 -35%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $703 −$703 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $688 +$447 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2,907 +$143 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $993 +$168 +17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $613 −$480 -78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,656 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $473 +$127 +27%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2,028 −$456 -22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,139 −$281 -13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,498 −$1,375 -25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4,379 +$2,702 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $455 −$49 -11%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $527 −$527 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1,361 −$351 -26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18,106 −$10,631 -59%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,521 −$639 -42%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $63 −$29 -46%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $518 −$38 -7%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $80 +$20 +25%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $3,782 −$1,454 -38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,329 +$378 +16%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $64 +$89 +140%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,677 −$429 -12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $93 −$39 -42%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1,072 −$330 -31%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $256 −$256 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $124 −$124 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,610 −$56 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $828 +$622 +75%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $4,137 +$1,487 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 94¢ $181 1m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 90¢ $182 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 13¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 14¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 15¢ $23 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 5¢ $8 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 15¢ $33 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 22¢ $48 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 44¢ $0 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $38 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 34¢ $70 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $88 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 90¢ $182 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $124 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 74¢ $151 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 54¢ $113 5h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 44¢ $55 5h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 77¢ $47 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 79¢ $48 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 36¢ $73 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 53¢ $81 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 53¢ $329 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 53¢ $218 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 53¢ $225 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 54¢ $156 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 54¢ $250 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $178 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $35 18h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $102 19h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 33¢ $14 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.74 · official $336.74 (match) · 3500 history records