Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x07e4…6c18 crypto 60 markets active 4d ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$779 (+56%) realized +$743 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$169
14 days+$746
30 days+$778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$11
crypto 28% −$40
world 20% +$198
tech 12% −$67
politics 7% +$676
sports 1% −$1
finance 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +31.4% +18.9% 71% 57% +31.0%
≤30d 17 +66.8% +50.9% 53% 47% +100.8%
≤90d 45 +8.1% -2.2% 47% 42% +64.0%
all 47 +10.2% -0.3% 47% 43% +64.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 43% +64.5%
10% -9.8% 36% +48.7%
15% -18.6% 23% +34.4%
20% -26.5% 19% +21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +81% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$11 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.63 per $1 lost it wins $3.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$516
Realized+$743
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)47 / 60
History coverage93d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 9¢ 12¢ $200 $255 +$55 (+27%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 54¢ 65¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No 71¢ 64¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $10 $37 +$27 (+270%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-64%)
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $50 +$14 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $104 −$73 -70%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $100 +$211 +211%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $77 +$20 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $73 +$633 +873%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary Jun 02 $10 +$42 +408%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 29 $61 −$5 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $5 −$1 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 26 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 06 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 04 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 04 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 04 $8 +$8 +97%
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Apr 01 $10 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 27 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 27 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 27 $16 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 27 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 26 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 26 $2 +$3 +206%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 26 $10 +$3 +30%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 11 $6 +$13 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 4d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 5¢ $21 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 32¢ $21 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on SELL Yes 3¢ $31 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 31¢ $20 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 32¢ $73 4d
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 35¢ $238 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $65 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 6d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 9¢ $104 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 8d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 9¢ $104 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 11d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 12d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $104 12d
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 13d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? BUY No 64¢ $30 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $30 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.33 · official $516.33 (match) · 131 history records