Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
07 0x07e8…ebe5 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$324 (-32%) realized −$324 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$313
14 days−$333
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$259
other 34% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -35.7% -41.8% 29% 29% -44.9%
≤30d 23 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -41.0%
≤90d 23 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -41.0%
all 23 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 35% -41.0%
10% -40.0% 30% -46.6%
15% -45.8% 30% -51.8%
20% -51.1% 30% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$34 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$324
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage11d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +57%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $31 −$17 -54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$18 +90%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $60 +$40 +67%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $33 −$2 -6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 −$2 -6%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $29 −$28 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $98 −$35 -36%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $95 −$95 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $79 +$17 +22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 +$29 +60%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $40 −$39 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$18 +118%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 +$37 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$49 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $56 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 20¢ $14 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $60 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $31 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 57¢ $29 17h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $29 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $30 23h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 23h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $33 23h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $63 30h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $98 32h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $95 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $95 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $79 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $49 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $40 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $15 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $20 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $33 7d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $15 7d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $46 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.51 · official $54.51 (match) · 37 history records