Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
07 0x07e9…15dc weather 408 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$774 (+3%) realized +$833 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate82%314W / 71L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$144
14 days−$18
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 85% +$86
sports 8% +$417
other 5% +$201
politics 1% +$3
culture 1% −$8
world 0% −$2
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 3% -16.1%
≤30d 151 +2.0% -7.8% 94% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 340 +2.9% -6.9% 87% 14% -7.5%
all 385 +2.8% -7.0% 82% 16% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 16% -6.3%
10% -15.9% 14% -15.2%
15% -24.0% 10% -23.4%
20% -31.4% 8% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$21 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$1,430
Realized+$833
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses314 / 71
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions23
Markets (closed)385 / 408
History coverage233d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 21? No 96¢ 100¢ $350 $364 +$14 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $341 $243 −$98 (-29%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 94¢ $195 $199 +$4 (+2%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 86¢ $167 $178 +$11 (+7%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 82¢ 85¢ $68 $71 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? No 92¢ 92¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $44 $46 +$3 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-01 House seat? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $37 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? No 96¢ 99¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? No 91¢ 94¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the IN-08 House seat? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23? No 98¢ 99¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? No 95¢ 99¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 23? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 99¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+57%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-01 House seat? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-08 House seat? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 27, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $36 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $47 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $70 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $86 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $89 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $77 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $162 +$55 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $126 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $411 −$256 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $187 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $79 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $122 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $186 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $323 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $351 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $102 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $283 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 9? Jun 10 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on June 9? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $24 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $47 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $30 33h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 95¢ $70 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $36 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $61 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $351 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $89 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $126 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $86 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $74 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $17 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $24 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $38 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,429.99 · official $1,430.19 (match) · 920 history records