Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
07 0x07ea…a6ba sports 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,479 (+14%) realized +$12,479 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%72W / 57L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$712per market
Trades / day53.7pace
Fees−$1,016est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$17,439
other 12% +$4,515
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +8.8% -1.5% 56% 55% +12.2%
≤30d 129 +8.8% -1.5% 56% 55% +12.2%
≤90d 129 +8.8% -1.5% 56% 55% +12.2%
all 129 +8.8% -1.5% 56% 55% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 55% +12.2%
10% -11.0% 51% +1.5%
15% ← realistic here -19.6% 43% -8.3%
20% -27.4% 34% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$802) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$668 vs −$470 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,479
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses72 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,016
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage4d
Avg bet$712
Trades / day53.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $780 +$532 +68%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $802 +$795 +99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,141 +$495 +43%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $2,288 +$1,649 +72%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $2,332 +$1,973 +85%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $664 −$650 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $443 +$135 +30%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $566 +$269 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,509 +$977 +39%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $768 +$3,155 +411%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $3,683 +$945 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $235 +$736 +313%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $669 +$582 +87%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $610 +$784 +128%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $674 −$660 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $882 +$742 +84%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $752 +$821 +109%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,058 +$620 +59%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $400 +$5 +1%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $678 +$476 +70%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $398 +$783 +197%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $640 +$699 +109%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $777 +$354 +46%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $665 +$203 +30%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $337 −$330 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $481 −$470 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $499 −$490 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,013 −$990 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $923 −$910 -99%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $194 −$190 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1,457 −$1,440 -99%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $317 −$310 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $642 −$630 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $447 +$531 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $663 +$1,249 +188%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $799 +$273 +34%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $201 +$27 +14%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2,376 +$1,354 +57%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,191 −$893 -75%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $421 −$410 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $470 −$460 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $198 −$193 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $670 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $337 −$332 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $608 −$585 -96%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,688 −$1,541 -91%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $175 −$170 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $398 −$390 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $950 −$940 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $609 −$600 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,312 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,596 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $1,636 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $3,937 2h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $4,305 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $664 2h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $710 2h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $1,622 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $578 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $835 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,485 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,923 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,628 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $101 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $365 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 63¢ $1,517 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2,349 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $780 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $443 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3,683 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $768 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $160 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $566 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $437 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $1,141 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $671 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $971 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,251 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,394 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $669 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records