Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
07 0x07ea…aab9 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized +$144 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%36W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$659
14 days+$184
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$143
politics 1% −$38
crypto 0% +$3
world 0% +$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +56.6% +41.7% 100% 100% +42.6%
≤30d 19 +17.2% +6.0% 68% 68% -1.7%
≤90d 44 +6.8% -3.4% 64% 64% -4.8%
all 61 -5.3% -14.3% 59% 52% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 52% -7.5%
10% -22.5% 51% -16.3%
15% -30.0% 48% -24.4%
20% -36.8% 38% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$94 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized+$144
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses36 / 25
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage136d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 88¢ $171 $285 +$114 (+67%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ $149 $1 −$147 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $153 +$54 +36%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $152 +$41 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $152 +$91 +60%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $160 +$91 +57%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $175 +$107 +61%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $176 +$120 +68%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $177 +$155 +88%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $175 −$175 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 05 $285 −$285 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $218 +$136 +62%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $157 −$157 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $157 −$157 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) May 24 $158 +$173 +110%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 23 $196 +$108 +56%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $196 −$196 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $144 +$69 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $145 +$134 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $72 +$118 +163%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $144 +$99 +69%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 09 $174 −$174 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $245 +$148 +60%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 03 $55 +$38 +70%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 30 $269 +$89 +33%
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Apr 30 $269 +$120 +45%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 27 $124 −$124 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 26 $135 −$135 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 25 $58 +$61 +105%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 23 $119 −$119 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 22 $168 −$168 -100%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 21 $175 +$122 +70%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Apr 20 $100 +$50 +50%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $142 +$91 +64%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: Suns (-3.5) Apr 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Apr 18 $86 +$74 +86%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Apr 17 $79 +$55 +70%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5 Apr 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $114 +$44 +39%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5 Apr 14 $105 +$70 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 13 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 13 $6 +$8 +134%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $2 +$2 +75%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $38 −$38 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Feb 03 $3 $0 +5%
Will Miami Heretics win the Optic Texas Major? Feb 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Riyadh Falcons win the Optic Texas Major? Jan 31 $2 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Suns Jan 30 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $152 49m
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $207 49m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $193 50m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $243 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $251 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 71¢ $153 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $152 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $152 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $160 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $175 4h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $282 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $175 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 SELL Under 99¢ $295 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 57¢ $176 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $177 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $152 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 64¢ $175 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $354 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $218 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 69¢ $285 11d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Thunder 60¢ $157 15d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Thunder 66¢ $157 17d
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $331 21d
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) BUY Knicks 46¢ $158 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 63¢ $196 23d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $196 23d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) SELL Spurs 99¢ $213 24d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Spurs 65¢ $144 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 SELL Over 100¢ $279 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 50¢ $145 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.43 · official $286.43 (match) · 146 history records